Understandably, there was a lot of buzz yesterday regarding Obama’s confirmation that the Assad regime used chemical weapons & news about increasing the “scale of support” to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) via the Supreme Military Council (SMC) headed by General Idriss.
Obama admitted finally that his ‘Red Line’ was crossed – even though that was obvious from YouTube videos months ago. The admission also comes with the notation that 100-150 Syrians have died from these attacks. Of course, forget the other 100,000+ souls slaughtered by the Assad regime over two years of collective punishment.
This US verbal escalation has to be seen within the context of recent regime gains prior to Geneva 2 “peace talks” enabled by Hezbollah’s direct intervention, occupation & Russian/ Iranian “all-in” support.
While the revolution’s outside support can only be described as disjointed & grossly limited, Assad’s gains were enabled to bolster the regime’s negotiation position leading to Geneva 2 – but the recent offensive seems to tip the scales too far for the US administrations liking.
The coming weeks will show if US “direct military support” to the FSA is real, or a carrot to get General Idriss back to table at Geneva 2. Afterall, a political solution with the Russians that maintains joint interests is still the US administrations objective in Syria, however peace talks need to ‘look real’.
And for Geneva 2 to look the part, the US needs someone representing the FSA to be present there who has some legs to stand on.
Last year I wrote the equation to a solution was simple: Civil Resistance + FSA + Outside Support = Fall of the Assad Regime. Sadly, the revolution is still searching for real external support to balance out Iranian & Russian intervention in Syria.
More will become apparent shortly with the G8 summit coming up…all the while, Assad will continue the push forward to alter frontlines through external intervention. Syrians will continue to resist the onslaught.